Anticipating Future Skills

Abstract

The Anticipating Future Skills (AFS) Series combines economic modelling with scenarios to provide employment projections for regions, industries, occupations and qualifications.

While AFS Series projections for 2019-2024 were finalised prior to the emergence of COVID-19 and do not take into account the impacts of the pandemic, emerging employment trends still provide valuable insights into future skills and workforce opportunities for the Queensland economy.

Unlike other employment projections, the AFS Series provides detailed data for industries and occupations at both State and regional levels, based on Australian Bureau of Statistics classifications.

The Anticipating Future Skills Series provides employment projections for a baseline and three scenarios under which the future of the Queensland labour market may evolve. When contrasted with baseline projections, deviations of the scenario projections from the baseline can be examined to measure their impact on employment. This assists us to understand the driving forces that influence future skills needs.

Based on modelling using the Victoria University Employment Forecasts model, the scenarios are:

• Baseline – “business as usual” scenario developed around the Queensland Government’s 2018–19 Budget Paper and Commonwealth and industry forecasts.

• Scenario 1 – exploring technological change by increasing labour productivity of all industries each year relative to the baseline.

• Scenario 2 – examining the impact of increasing interstate migration with a declining proportion of working age population (15–64 years).

• Scenario 3 – investigating the impact on employment if the price of coal and iron ore fall by 50 per cent relative to the baseline.