Climate change increasingly affects housing markets, yet distributional impacts are rarely examined beyond mean-based analyses.
Using quantile regression on over 500,000 Australian property transactions (2015–2020), this study shows that affordable housing is disproportionately devalued by bushfire and flood risks, while resilience factors such as altitude and elevated coastal proximity command premiums in higher-end markets.
These results reveal a “vulnerability trap” for low-income households and a “resilience divide” favoring affluent buyers, underscoring the need for distribution-sensitive climate adaptation housing policies.
